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2007 Pecan Crop Forecast is 321.7 million pounds There were six forecasts of the 2007 pecan crop (Table 1). The range in the estimates was from a low of 282.5 million pounds, made by the Pecan Producers of Louisiana in June, to a high of 365.2 million pounds, made by the National Pecan Shellers Association in September. Let’s take the average of the six forecasts, 321.7 million pounds for discussion of the current crop and outlook. This forecast of 321.7 million pounds is 14.8% higher than the last on-crop year, 2005, when the crop was 280.2 million pounds. The average price for improved in 2005 was $1.54, while the average price for natives was $1.08. This year’s price will be affected by several factors. One is that consumers likely have adjusted to higher levels following 2 years of high prices. Another is that the quality of the pecans is better this year in the Southeast than it normally is in an on-year. This is because of the dry spring reducing disease and the adequate late-season rainfall improving nut fill. For such a large crop in Georgia, quality is much better than normally expected for the big crop. Buyers can afford to pay more for a better quality nut, and this will be reflected in the prices. Consumption has gone up a bit, likely attributable to recognition of the health value of nuts and to promotional programs by the National Pecan Shellers Association and by the Georgia Pecan Commodity Commission. There is discussion of exports to China taking up to 60 million pounds this season. All these positive factors shoring up price, however, cannot outduel supply and demand. Prices will almost certainly be lower than 2006 and 2005, but not dramatically lower. Without question, early season prices will be highest of the season, as supplies are low. Expect a larger than normal price drop in about the second week of November, as much of the huge Georgia crop hits the market at about the same time. Table 1. Various forecasts of the 2007 pecan crop, compared to the crop in 4 prior seasons.
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